TOP DOWN ANALYSIS (BIAS AND DIRECTION)

Study US Dollar Index for general market direction
Refer to the COT report and note the Commercial Trader's net position
Consider the Commercial Traders as the "Smart Money" - thus try to position like trades
Refer to and monitor daily the 2, 5, 10, and 30 year note line chart overlay
On the Treasury Note overlay, look for failure swings to provide clues to the future direction of the US Dollar
If the yields are dropping and one of the three yields fail to make a lower low, look for US Dollar to bounce
If yields are rising and one of the three yields fails to make a higher high, look for US Dollar to slide lower
A bullish US Dollar translates to lower foreign currencies, A bearish US Dollar translates to higher foreign currencies
Look at the monthly, weekly, and daily charts of the currency pairs traded, noting key support and resistance levels
Determine the market flow on the daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour charts via swing highs and lows Try to trade in line with the long term (top down) directional bias and when the 4-hour market flow is in sync. This will filter many false signals and assist us in high probability trade setups
When there is no clear definable direction, remain flat and sidelined until there is a clear bias

Bias is determined by swings, use fractals to help quickly and visually identify swing areas on the daily, 4hr, 1hr
Want to have confluence of daily/4hr or 4hr/60m, or all 3 in terms of swings
When swing low fractal is formed, the PA must trade below that low fractal to the downside for market flow to be considered short
If price does not trade below the low fractal formed, then price action is long

Only consider fractals to the immediate left of the price action, prior fractals are no longer valid

Monthly Chart > Identify key S&R levels and direction
Weekly Chart > Identify key S&R levels and direction
Daily Chart > Identify key S&R levels and direction
1-Hour Chart > Spend most of your time here learning tendencies of hourly
15-Min Chart > Timeframe where most trends, projections, objectives are made. Trade management timeframe
5-Min > Enter trades at 5-min

Stops - If there are trades that require more than a 30 pip stop loss, probably let that trade go and look for another opportunity to enter
Respectable Swing - When looking for swings to draw Fib, etc., look for price moves of 40 pips or greater

Typically tops out in the middle of February and declines into mid-March.
Last half of March is usually strong and then sells off in April (and last bit of March).
Beginning to middle of May is a strong time for the USD.
Middle of June usually marks a short-term high and the USD declines into the end of August.
Rally from beginning of August to early to mid-September.
After this the lines become divergent meaning signals are less clear and no strong seasonal patterns are blatantly present.

The Euro typically forms a bottom in mid-February and then moves higher into mid-march. A pull back then occurs then we see another climb into the end of April.
Another low in June which climbs into late July/early August.
Usually a decline from early August to early September.
Early to late September begins a bullish trend for Euro through year end with a pullback in October.

The Pound typically forms a bottom in early March and then moves higher into the end of April.
Early May to mid-May is usually a bearish time.
A bottom typically forms again in mid-May we see a move higher into early August.
Price usually peak early in August and decline into mid-September.
Price peaks in early November and the price slides into mid-to-late November.
Prices bottom in late November and rally into the end of the year.